Capability · Supply Chain Risk Intelligence

Know which corridor breaks
before it breaks.

NERAI prices pressure across eight global chokepoint corridors, scores route-level risk by commodity, and publishes calibrated disruption forecasts — backtested, Brier-scored, and verified.

0
Chokepoint corridor indices
2/4/0-wk
Shock-forecast horizons
0-day
Longest route outlook
0d
Longest risk-map window

Corridor pressure, route risk, and the network behind both.

From cost-pressure indices to causal transmission analysis, every module answers the same question: where will your supply chain feel it next?

📦
Corridor Cost-Pressure Indices
Eight global chokepoint corridors, each with separate container (short-cycle) and dry-bulk (long-cycle) pressure readings, plus transit-disruption % and escalation, news, and sanctions intensity.
8 corridors · container + dry-bulk
🗺
Corridor Risk Explorer
Route-level risk scoring between origin and destination by commodity, with chokepoint exposure, alternative-route comparison, and 30 / 90 / 180-day outlooks.
30 / 90 / 180-day outlooks
📈
Calibrated Shock Forecasts
Disruption probabilities at 2 / 4 / 8-week horizons per corridor — backtested and Brier-scored against naive baselines.
2 / 4 / 8-week horizons
🏦
NY Fed GSCPI Integration
Global supply-chain pressure from the New York Fed's GSCPI, expressed in sigma and percentile terms, anchoring corridor readings in the global picture.
Sigma + percentile
🌍
Live Risk Map Layer
Country-level supply-chain stress on an interactive world map, with 24-hour, 7-day, 30-day, and 90-day windows.
24h / 7d / 30d / 90d
🕸
Causal Network Analysis
Cross-country risk transmission mapping, a scenario simulator for what-if analysis, and the Silicon Chokepoint module for semiconductor supply risk.
Scenario simulator · Silicon Chokepoint

The trade arteries, right now.

One view of the chokepoints, global pressure, and the corridor most at risk.

Global supply-chain pressure (GSCPI)HIGH
-94%HORMUZ TRANSIT
+1.77σGSCPI · 93rd PCTL
70%TOP DISRUPTION RISK

How the models work.

Measure, explain, forecast, validate — the same pipeline behind every corridor number and every disruption probability on the platform.

01
Measure
Each of the eight chokepoint corridors gets separate container (short-cycle) and dry-bulk (long-cycle) cost-pressure readings, a transit-disruption %, and escalation, news, and sanctions intensity.
02
Explain
Causal network analysis maps how risk transmits across countries, while the NY Fed GSCPI — in sigma and percentile terms — anchors corridor readings in global supply-chain pressure.
03
Forecast
Calibrated disruption probabilities are issued at 2 / 4 / 8-week horizons per corridor; the Corridor Risk Explorer extends route-level outlooks to 30 / 90 / 180 days, with a scenario simulator for what-ifs.
04
Validate
Shock forecasts are backtested and Brier-scored against naive baselines, and every published claim passes event-level verification before any narrative is written.
Grounded
by design

Significance testing Signals are tested before they become claims.

Event-level verification Every event is verified before any narrative is written.

ICD-203-aligned A grounding guard aligned with ICD-203 analytic standards.

No unverified claims If it cannot be verified, it does not ship.

Probabilities with a track record.

Forecast Desk

Supply-chain & modern-mercantilism forecasts

The Forecast Desk publishes supply-chain and modern-mercantilism predictions under the same grounding contract as every NERAI forecast.

  • Every question cites at least two verified sources.
  • Resolution happens only via whitelisted authorities.
  • Probabilities are calibrated model estimates, tracked by Brier score.
  • An anti-hallucination contract is enforced in code, not by convention.
Calibrated · Backtested

Corridor shock forecasts

Disruption probabilities for each corridor at 2 / 4 / 8-week horizons, backtested and Brier-scored against naive baselines.

The Corridor Risk Explorer adds 30 / 90 / 180-day route outlooks with alternative-route comparison by commodity.

Read published research →

Stress-test your supply chain against what’s coming.

Open the live dashboard, browse the published research, or talk to us about the corridors and commodities that matter to you.