NERAI prices pressure across eight global chokepoint corridors, scores route-level risk by commodity, and publishes calibrated disruption forecasts — backtested, Brier-scored, and verified.
From cost-pressure indices to causal transmission analysis, every module answers the same question: where will your supply chain feel it next?
One view of the chokepoints, global pressure, and the corridor most at risk.
Measure, explain, forecast, validate — the same pipeline behind every corridor number and every disruption probability on the platform.
Significance testing Signals are tested before they become claims.
Event-level verification Every event is verified before any narrative is written.
ICD-203-aligned A grounding guard aligned with ICD-203 analytic standards.
No unverified claims If it cannot be verified, it does not ship.
The Forecast Desk publishes supply-chain and modern-mercantilism predictions under the same grounding contract as every NERAI forecast.
Disruption probabilities for each corridor at 2 / 4 / 8-week horizons, backtested and Brier-scored against naive baselines.
The Corridor Risk Explorer adds 30 / 90 / 180-day route outlooks with alternative-route comparison by commodity.
Read published research →Open the live dashboard, browse the published research, or talk to us about the corridors and commodities that matter to you.