Capability · Maritime Risk Intelligence

Every chokepoint watched.
Every risk priced.

NERAI monitors live disruption at the world’s chokepoints — Hormuz, Suez and the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama and beyond — tracks the shadow fleet, and prices escalation and war risk on defined horizons.

Explore the Dashboard→ See the capabilities

0-week

Shadow-fleet forecast direction

0-week

War-risk signal horizon

2/4/0-wk

Escalation horizons

Events per weekly brief

What you get

From live AIS watch to priced war risk.

Chokepoint by chokepoint, vessel by vessel — maritime risk measured against baseline and projected forward on defined horizons.

⚓

Chokepoint Monitoring

Live disruption % versus baseline for the world’s chokepoints — Hormuz, Suez / Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama and more — with an AIS-based live operations watch.

Live % vs baseline · AIS watch

🚨

Port Incidents & Warnings

A continuously collected feed of port incidents and navigational warnings, so operational surprises surface as they happen.

Collected continuously

🚢

Shadow-Fleet Index

A composite enforcement-pressure index with a 13-week forecast direction, backed by vessel-exposure analytics.

13-week direction

📈

Escalation Probabilities

Escalation probabilities per corridor at 2 / 4 / 8-week horizons — calibrated, not guessed.

2 / 4 / 8-week horizons

⚠

War-Risk Signal

A war-risk signal that includes the probability of changes to Joint War Committee listed areas on a 6-week horizon.

JWC listed areas · 6-week

📰

NERAI Maritime Weekly

The week’s five most consequential maritime events under a strict recency rule, every fact from URL-verified sources, with strategic analysis and a PDF edition.

5 events · URL-verified · PDF

Live status

Chokepoint status board.

Five corridors at a glance — status, trend, and transit pressure.

CHOKEPOINT STATUS NORMAL ELEVATED SEVERE

HormuzSEVERE

Suez / Red SeaELEVATED

Bab el-MandebELEVATED

PanamaNORMAL

MalaccaNORMAL

TRANSIT PRESSURE →

Methodology

How the models work.

Watch, score, forecast, verify — from raw AIS movement to a probability you can hold the model to.

Watch

An AIS-based live operations watch tracks disruption % versus baseline at each chokepoint, while port incidents and navigational warnings are collected continuously.

Score

Shadow-fleet enforcement pressure is compressed into a composite index, with vessel-exposure analytics beneath it.

Forecast

Escalation probabilities are issued per corridor at 2 / 4 / 8-week horizons, the shadow-fleet index carries a 13-week direction, and the war-risk signal prices JWC listed-area changes over 6 weeks.

Verify & publish

The Maritime Weekly ships five URL-verified events with strategic analysis and a PDF edition; shadow-fleet, Hormuz, and three-corridors briefings are published on the Foresight Desk.

Grounded
by design

Significance testing Signals are tested before they become claims.

Event-level verification Every event is verified before any narrative is written.

ICD-203-aligned A grounding guard aligned with ICD-203 analytic standards.

No unverified claims If it cannot be verified, it does not ship.

Predictions

Maritime forecasts, held to a score.

Forecast Desk

Maritime & chokepoint predictions

The Forecast Desk publishes maritime and chokepoint predictions under the same grounding contract as every NERAI forecast.

Every question cites at least two verified sources.
Resolution happens only via whitelisted authorities.
Probabilities are calibrated model estimates, tracked by Brier score.
An anti-hallucination contract is enforced in code, not by convention.

Published research

Briefings on the Foresight Desk

NERAI’s published maritime research includes the shadow-fleet, Hormuz, and three-corridors briefings — available on the Foresight Desk.

Alongside them, the NERAI Maritime Weekly delivers the week’s five most consequential events with strict recency and URL-verified sourcing.

Read published research →

Every chokepoint watched.Every risk priced.