Capability · Sanctions Intelligence

See the sanctions map
as it moves.

NERAI aggregates the restricted-party universe, tracks enforcement pressure continuously, scores circumvention corridors, and publishes calibrated sanctions forecasts — every fact verified before it reaches you.

0+
Restricted-party entries
0–0
Corridor intensity scale
0-week
Shadow-fleet forecast direction
0
Events per weekly brief

The full sanctions picture, continuously updated.

From list aggregation to corridor-level circumvention scoring, every module is built to answer one question: where is sanctions risk concentrating next?

🗂
Restricted-Party Universe
25,000+ entries aggregated across the major lists — OFAC SDN, EU, UK and others — broken down by list and by country.
OFAC SDN · EU · UK et al.
Enforcement-Pressure Tracking
A continuously updated timeline of enforcement developments — designations, seizures, and penalties as they land.
Updated continuously
🧭
Circumvention-Corridor Scores
Named corridors — such as re-export routes toward Russia — scored 0–100 for circumvention intensity, with Severe and High bands.
0–100 · Severe / High bands
🚢
Shadow-Fleet Pressure Index
A composite enforcement-pressure index with a 13-week forecast direction, plus vessel-exposure breakdowns by group and by flag.
13-week direction
👁
Secondary-Sanctions Risk
A secondary-sanctions risk read paired with a rolling 7 / 30 / 90-day watchlist of what to monitor next.
7 / 30 / 90-day watchlist
🛢
Russia Impact Module
Fossil-revenue tracking built on CREA estimates, enforcement-pressure readings, and the ruble trend — in one view.
CREA estimates · ruble trend

Enforcement pressure board.

Designation events as they cascade, and the composite pressure they add up to.

ENFORCEMENT FEED 4 SIGNALS LOGGED
  • SDN updatenow
  • EU package2m
  • UK OFSI notice9m
  • Seizure reported14m
COMPOSITE ENFORCEMENT PRESSURE · 0–100
25,000+RESTRICTED PARTIES
13-WEEK TREND ▲SHADOW-FLEET DIRECTION
SEVERE CORRIDORS: 30–100 INTENSITY BANDS

How the models work.

Every output on this page follows the same pipeline — aggregate, score, forecast, verify — so a number never appears without a source behind it.

01
Aggregate
25,000+ restricted-party entries are consolidated across OFAC SDN, EU, UK and other major lists, alongside a continuous timeline of enforcement developments — designations, seizures, penalties.
02
Score
Named circumvention corridors receive 0–100 intensity scores with Severe and High bands; shadow-fleet enforcement pressure is compressed into a composite index with vessel-exposure breakdowns by group and flag.
03
Forecast
The shadow-fleet index carries a 13-week forecast direction, and a secondary-sanctions risk read feeds a 7 / 30 / 90-day watchlist. Forecast Desk probabilities are calibrated model estimates.
04
Verify & publish
Weekly outputs cite URL-verified sources under a strict 7-day recency rule, forecasts resolve only via whitelisted authorities, and accuracy is tracked by Brier score.
Grounded
by design

Significance testing Signals are tested before they become claims.

Event-level verification Every event is verified before any narrative is written.

ICD-203-aligned A grounding guard aligned with ICD-203 analytic standards.

No unverified claims If it cannot be verified, it does not ship.

Forecasts you can score, not vibes.

New · Forecast Desk

Autonomous weekly sanctions forecasts

Each week the platform autonomously generates binary sanctions forecasts — will a designation land, will a package be adopted — and publishes them with calibrated probabilities.

  • Every question cites at least two verified sources.
  • Resolution happens only via whitelisted authorities — OFAC, EUR-Lex and peers.
  • Probabilities are calibrated model estimates, tracked by Brier score.
  • An anti-hallucination contract is enforced in code, not by convention.
Weekly

NERAI Sanctions Weekly

Every week: the five most consequential sanctions events, under a strict 7-day recency rule, with every fact drawn from URL-verified sources.

Each edition adds expert strategic analysis and is available as a PDF download.

Read published research →

Put sanctions intelligence on your desk.

Open the live dashboard, browse the published research, or talk to us about what your team needs to see.