Geopolitical Intelligence Platform

Empowering decision-makers
with AI-native geopolitical intelligence.

NERAI fuses millions of global event signals with AI-driven analysis to deliver decision-grade risk intelligence — quantified, forecast, and explained in plain language.

Explore the Dashboard → Learn how it works
80+
Countries monitored
20+
Risk dimensions
12M
Forward forecast horizon
Daily
Index updates
IRAN (IR) Active Conflict — US & Israel ▲ +34.6% ISRAEL (IS) Military Operations Risk ▲ +28.1% UKRAINE (UA) Military Escalation ▲ +19.7% CHINA (CH) Taiwan Strait Tensions ▲ +8.4% RUSSIA (RS) Ceasefire Pressure ▼ -4.2% SUDAN (SU) Civil War Escalation ▲ +17.8% VENEZUELA (VE) Political Instability ▲ +12.5% TURKEY (TU) Regional Influence Index ▼ -2.9% IRAN (IR) Active Conflict — US & Israel ▲ +34.6% ISRAEL (IS) Military Operations Risk ▲ +28.1% UKRAINE (UA) Military Escalation ▲ +19.7% CHINA (CH) Taiwan Strait Tensions ▲ +8.4% RUSSIA (RS) Ceasefire Pressure ▼ -4.2% SUDAN (SU) Civil War Escalation ▲ +17.8% VENEZUELA (VE) Political Instability ▲ +12.5% TURKEY (TU) Regional Influence Index ▼ -2.9%
What is NERAI

Risk intelligence
grounded in data.

NERAI is a geopolitical risk intelligence platform built for analysts, decision-makers, and organisations that need to understand — and anticipate — political instability worldwide.

Rather than relying on subjective expert opinion, NERAI derives its signals from structured event data — millions of news articles processed daily — to produce objective, reproducible risk indices across more than 20 conflict and stability dimensions.

Every index is paired with a 12-month forward forecast, allowing users to act on emerging trends before they crystallise into crises.

GLOBAL RISK HEATMAP — SAMPLE
TOP RISK INDICES — LIVE UPDATE
Military Escalation
74
Political Instability
68
International Crisis
61
Terrorism
44
Human Rights Abuses
38
How it works

From raw news to
actionable intelligence.

01
Data Ingestion
GDELT monitors 100+ languages across hundreds of thousands of news sources worldwide, generating a structured record of every reported global event — in real time.
02
Index Construction
Events are classified across 20+ conflict dimensions — military escalation, terrorism, political crisis, human rights — and aggregated into daily country-level indices.
03
Predictive Modelling
Time-series forecasting models project each index up to 12 months forward, providing confidence intervals and directional trend signals.
04
Intelligence Delivery
Interactive dashboards, narrative Q&A, and country risk profiles deliver insights to analysts in the format they need, when they need it.
The Platform

Everything you need in one place.

The NERAI Intelligence Hub brings together every layer of analysis — from raw index trends to AI-generated risk narratives — in a clean, professional interface.

📊
Global Risk Indices
Daily-updated country × topic heatmaps with interactive charting. Compare trajectories across nations and timeframes.
🔮
12-Month Forecasts
Prophet-based time-series models with confidence bands project how each index will evolve through the year ahead.
🌍
Country Profile Pages
Deep-dive profiles for 80+ countries: risk score breakdowns, trend sparklines, and news event feeds.
🔍
Narrative Intelligence Q&A
Ask natural-language questions — "What is the conflict trajectory for Iran?", "How does the Middle East war affect energy markets?" — and receive a structured analysis: recent 7-day movements, 12-month projections, and a synthesised assessment.
📰
Live News Feed
Real-time GDELT-sourced news events filtered by country and topic, providing the human context behind every number.
NERAI Strategic Insights Hub — Command Center world intelligence map NERAI Strategic Insights Hub — Top 15 Countries Political Instability Heatmap
Open full dashboard →
Use Cases

Built for those who need to know first.

🏦
Investment & Finance
Portfolio managers and sovereign risk analysts use NERAI to identify geopolitical risk in emerging markets before volatility reaches asset prices. Early signals on political instability, active conflict risk, and bilateral deterioration.
🏢
Corporate Risk & Compliance
Multinationals use NERAI to monitor operating environments in real time. Supply chain disruptions, workforce safety assessments, and market-entry decisions backed by objective, data-driven risk scores.
🏛️
Government & Diplomacy
Diplomatic services and policy research institutions use NERAI for early warning on regional instability, conflict escalation forecasting, and evidence-based briefings that complement traditional intelligence.
🎓
Think Tanks & Academia
Researchers access reproducible, source-transparent risk metrics for cross-country comparative studies, conflict prediction research, and event-driven analysis that scales beyond manual coding.
🛡️
Security & Defence
Security organisations leverage NERAI's 12-month forecasts and What-If scenario modelling to anticipate escalation vectors, assess regional spillover risk, and prioritise intelligence focus.
📡
Media & Journalism
Investigative journalists and media organisations use NERAI to identify data-backed story leads — connecting news events to broader structural trends invisible to daily reporting cycles.
Methodology

Transparent. Reproducible. Rigorous.

NERAI is built on open, peer-reviewed data sources and documented methodology — ensuring every index value can be traced back to its source events. There are no black boxes.

1
Source: GDELT Project Global Database of Events, Language and Tone — 100+ languages, real-time global coverage, updated every 15 minutes.
2
Event Classification & Filtering Events are filtered by actor country and coded against 20+ CAMEO-based conflict and instability categories.
3
Index Aggregation Daily event counts are normalised, smoothed, and aggregated into per-country, per-topic risk indices.
4
Forecasting: Facebook Prophet Industry-standard time-series models generate 12-month projections with upper/lower confidence intervals.
5
Validation & Backtesting Models are regularly backtested against historical crises to verify predictive accuracy and flag drift.
Data Architecture
🌐
GDELT Project
Primary event data · Real-time · Open access
Core
📊
Risk Index Engine
2,400 country×topic series · Daily granularity
Proprietary
🔮
Prophet Forecast Layer
28,800 projection rows · 12-month horizon
Models
🤖
Narrative Analysis Engine
NL Q&A · Trend detection · Auto-assessment
AI Layer
📰
Live News Integration
GDELT event stream · Real-time article links
Live
Coverage
80+
Countries
20+
Risk Topics
Daily
Index Updates
12M
Forecast Horizon
✦ AI-Powered Intelligence

Ask any question.
Get expert-grade analysis.

NERAI's AI Analyst combines live risk indices, 12-month forecasts, and real-time GDELT news into a single coherent answer — written at the level of a senior international relations analyst. No dashboards to navigate, no data to interpret manually. Just ask, and receive a precise, data-grounded assessment.

1
You ask a question in plain language
Any question about countries, risk topics, conflicts, or geopolitical trends — no syntax required.
2
The system assembles all relevant data
7-day index movements, 12-month model forecasts, global risk movers, and the latest GDELT headlines — automatically gathered for the entities in your question.
3
Claude claude-sonnet-4-6 synthesises the analysis
Anthropic's most capable model interprets the data as a senior geopolitical analyst would — establishing cause-effect links, referencing specific events, and projecting forward.
4
You receive a decision-grade assessment
A structured 4–6 paragraph analysis with precise figures, trend context, and a forward-looking strategic outlook — in under 10 seconds.
🌍"What is the current risk trajectory for Russia and China?"
⚡"Which countries face the highest coup risk in the next 6 months?"
📊"Why did Iran's political instability index spike this week?"
🔮"What does the 12-month forecast say about stability in Southeast Asia?"
Predictive Infrastructure

The analytical engine
beneath the intelligence.

Two purpose-built quantitative systems give NERAI its predictive edge — a Granger causality network that maps how risk propagates across the globe, and a scenario engine that simulates the future before it happens.

🕸 Causal Network

Which risks predict
which — and when.

Using Granger causality testing across all 2,400+ topic × country index pairs, NERAI discovers statistically significant lead-lag relationships between risk series — revealing how instability in one region propagates to others before it becomes visible in the news.

01
Pairwise causality testing
Every index pair is tested at 1, 2, and 3-month lags. Relationships significant at p<0.05 are retained.
02
Network graph construction
Significant edges form a directed influence network — showing which series are "infectious" sources vs. downstream absorbers.
03
Lead indicator identification
Series with high out-degree (many targets) act as early warning signals — elevated values today predict risk in connected series 1–3 months ahead.
Military Escalation
Iran
Intl Crisis
Israel
Instability
Saudi Arabia
Military Crisis
Lebanon
Oil Instability
Kuwait
lag 1m · p=0.003
lag 2m · p=0.011
⚡ Scenario Engine

Simulate geopolitical
shocks before they land.

Define any geopolitical shock — a military escalation, a leadership collapse, a sanctions wave — and the scenario engine re-runs the forecast model on the altered data, propagating the shock through the causal network to reveal second and third-order effects across connected countries.

01
Define the shock
Select a pre-built scenario or specify any country, topic, magnitude (e.g. +80%), and duration. Five ready-made scenarios cover Iran, Russia, China-Taiwan, Middle East oil, and democratic backsliding.
02
Propagate through the network
The shock flows through Granger-linked series with a 40% decay per hop — automatically generating realistic spillover effects in causally connected countries.
03
Baseline vs. scenario comparison
Every affected series is re-forecast and compared to baseline — showing which countries escalate, by how much, and when the peak risk materialises.
SCENARIO: Iran Nuclear Crisis 12 series affected
Military Escalation / Iran
+82%
Intl Crisis / Israel
+61%
Instability / Lebanon
+38%
Oil Risk / Kuwait
+24%
Political Stability / US
–14%
vs. baseline forecast · peak risk: Aug 2026
What-If Analysis

What happens if
the Iran conflict expands?

NERAI's What-If engine lets analysts model hypothetical scenarios — "What if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz?", "What if the Iran-Israel-US conflict draws in regional powers?", "What if ceasefire talks in Ukraine stall?" — and project the cascading impact on risk indices across interconnected countries.

Explore the Platform →
⚡
Conflict Escalation
Model the risk ripple effect of military escalation in a specific theatre — tracing impact on neighbouring countries and allied networks.
📉
Iran-US-Israel Conflict Escalation
Model how an expansion of the active Iran-US-Israel conflict — including Strait of Hormuz blockade or missile strikes — ripples across regional stability and energy markets.
🔄
Leadership Transition
Assess how a change of government in a key country could shift its risk profile and bilateral relationship indicators.
🌊
Regional Spillover
Identify which countries are most exposed to instability contagion from a given conflict zone.
Pricing

Start free. Upgrade when ready.

7-day free trial on all plans — no credit card required to start.

Solo
€19/mo
✦ 7-day free trial
  • Web dashboard — 80+ countries
  • All 20+ risk dimensions
  • Daily index updates
  • What-If scenario analysis
  • 3-month history
  • Early access to new features
Start 7-Day Trial →
Most Popular
Pro
€39/mo
✦ 7-day free trial
  • Everything in Solo
  • 12-month full history
  • Unlimited What-If scenarios
  • CSV data export
  • API access
  • Country-specific risk alerts
  • Priority support
Start 7-Day Trial →
Enterprise
Custom
Pricing
✦ Tailored to your team
  • Everything in Pro
  • Multiple team seats
  • Custom integrations & API
  • Dedicated account manager
  • SLA & uptime guarantee
  • Custom country coverage
Contact Us →

Intelligence that moves
at the speed of events.

Explore the live NERAI Intelligence Hub — real data, real forecasts, and real-time analysis for a world that does not wait.

Open the Dashboard → Get in Touch
Contact Us

Get in touch.

Questions about the platform, enterprise plans, or a custom integration? We respond to every inquiry within 24 hours.

Response time

We aim to respond to all enquiries within 24 hours on business days.

Connect
★ Enterprise & Partnerships

Need custom country coverage, team seats, or API access? Mention it in your message and we'll put together a tailored proposal.