Geopolitical Intelligence Platform

See the world's risks
before they become crises.

NERAI monitors millions of global news events in real time, converts them into structured risk indices, and projects country-level instability up to 12 months into the future.

Explore the Dashboard → Learn how it works
80+
Countries monitored
20+
Risk dimensions
12M
Forward forecast horizon
Daily
Index updates
IRAN (IR) Active Conflict — US & Israel ▲ +34.6% ISRAEL (IS) Military Operations Risk ▲ +28.1% UKRAINE (UA) Military Escalation ▲ +19.7% CHINA (CH) Taiwan Strait Tensions ▲ +8.4% RUSSIA (RS) Ceasefire Pressure ▼ -4.2% SUDAN (SU) Civil War Escalation ▲ +17.8% VENEZUELA (VE) Political Instability ▲ +12.5% TURKEY (TU) Regional Influence Index ▼ -2.9% IRAN (IR) Active Conflict — US & Israel ▲ +34.6% ISRAEL (IS) Military Operations Risk ▲ +28.1% UKRAINE (UA) Military Escalation ▲ +19.7% CHINA (CH) Taiwan Strait Tensions ▲ +8.4% RUSSIA (RS) Ceasefire Pressure ▼ -4.2% SUDAN (SU) Civil War Escalation ▲ +17.8% VENEZUELA (VE) Political Instability ▲ +12.5% TURKEY (TU) Regional Influence Index ▼ -2.9%
What is NERAI

Risk*intelligence
grounded in data.

NERAI is a geopolitical risk intelligence platform built for analysts, decision-makers, and organisations that need to understand — and anticipate — political instability worldwide.

Rather than relying on subjective expert opinion, NERAI derives its signals from structured event data — millions of news articles processed daily — to produce objective, reproducible risk indices across more than 20 conflict and stability dimensions.

Every index is paired with a 12-month forward forecast, allowing users to act on emerging trends before they crystallise into crises.

GLOBAL RISK HEATMAP — SAMPLE
TOP RISK INDICES — LIVE UPDATE
Military Escalation
74
Political Instability
68
International Crisis
61
Terrorism
44
Human Rights Abuses
38
How it works

From raw news to
actionable intelligence.

01
Data Ingestion
GDELT monitors 100+ languages across hundreds of thousands of news sources worldwide, generating a structured record of every reported global event — in real time.
02
Index Construction
Events are classified across 20+ conflict dimensions — military escalation, terrorism, political crisis, human rights — and aggregated into daily country-level indices.
03
Predictive Modelling
Time-series forecasting models project each index up to 12 months forward, providing confidence intervals and directional trend signals.
04
Intelligence Delivery
Interactive dashboards, narrative Q&A, and country risk profiles deliver insights to analysts in the format they need, when they need it.
The Platform

Everything you need in one place.

The NERAI Intelligence Hub brings together every layer of analysis — from raw index trends to AI-generated risk narratives — in a clean, professional interface.

📊
Global Risk Indices
Daily-updated country × topic heatmaps with interactive charting. Compare trajectories across nations and timeframes.
🔮
12-Month Forecasts
Prophet-based time-series models with confidence bands project how each index will evolve through the year ahead.
🌍
Country Profile Pages
Deep-dive profiles for 80+ countries: risk score breakdowns, trend sparklines, and news event feeds.
🔍
Narrative Intelligence Q&A
Ask natural-language questions — "What is the conflict trajectory for Iran?", "How does the Middle East war affect energy markets?" — and receive a structured analysis: recent 7-day movements, 12-month projections, and a synthesised assessment.
📰
Live News Feed
Real-time GDELT-sourced news events filtered by country and topic, providing the human context behind every number.
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Use Cases

Built for those who need to know first.

🏦
Investment & Finance
Portfolio managers and sovereign risk analysts use NERAI to identify geopolitical risk in emerging markets before volatility reaches asset prices. Early signals on political instability, active conflict risk, and bilateral deterioration.
🏢
Corporate Risk & Compliance
Multinationals use NERAI to monitor operating environments in real time. Supply chain disruptions, workforce safety assessments, and market-entry decisions backed by objective, data-driven risk scores.
🏛️
Government & Diplomacy
Diplomatic services and policy research institutions use NERAI for early warning on regional instability, conflict escalation forecasting, and evidence-based briefings that complement traditional intelligence.
🎓
Think Tanks & Academia
Researchers access reproducible, source-transparent risk metrics for cross-country comparative studies, conflict prediction research, and event-driven analysis that scales beyond manual coding.
🛡️
Security & Defence
Security organisations leverage NERAI's 12-month forecasts and What-If scenario modelling to anticipate escalation vectors, assess regional spillover risk, and prioritise intelligence focus.
📡
Media & Journalism
Investigative journalists and media organisations use NERAI to identify data-backed story leads — connecting news events to broader structural trends invisible to daily reporting cycles.
Methodology

Transparent. Reproducible. Rigorous.

NERAI is built on open, peer-reviewed data sources and documented methodology — ensuring every index value can be traced back to its source events. There are no black boxes.

1
Source: GDELT Project Global Database of Events, Language and Tone — 100+ languages, real-time global coverage, updated every 15 minutes.
2
Event Classification & Filtering Events are filtered by actor country and coded against 20+ CAMEO-based conflict and instability categories.
3
Index Aggregation Daily event counts are normalised, smoothed, and aggregated into per-country, per-topic risk indices.
4
Forecasting: Facebook Prophet Industry-standard time-series models generate 12-month projections with upper/lower confidence intervals.
5
Validation & Backtesting Models are regularly backtested against historical crises to verify predictive accuracy and flag drift.
Data Architecture
🌐
GDELT Project
Primary event data · Real-time · Open access
Core
📊
Risk Index Engine
2,400 country×topic series · Daily granularity
Proprietary
🔮
Prophet Forecast Layer
28,800 projection rows · 12-month horizon
Models
🤖
Narrative Analysis Engine
NL Q&A · Trend detection · Auto-assessment
AI Layer
📰
Live News Integration
GDELT event stream · Real-time article links
Live
Coverage
80+
Countries
20+
Risk Topics
Daily
Index Updates
12M
Forecast Horizon
What-If Analysis

What happens if
the Iran conflict expands?

NERAI's What-If engine lets analysts model hypothetical scenarios — "What if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz?", "What if the Iran-Israel-US conflict draws in regional powers?", "What if ceasefire talks in Ukraine stall?" — and project the cascading impact on risk indices across interconnected countries.

Explore the Platform →
⚡
Conflict Escalation
Model the risk ripple effect of military escalation in a specific theatre — tracing impact on neighbouring countries and allied networks.
📉
Iran-US-Israel Conflict Escalation
Model how an expansion of the active Iran-US-Israel conflict — including Strait of Hormuz blockade or missile strikes — ripples across regional stability and energy markets.
🔄
Leadership Transition
Assess how a change of government in a key country could shift its risk profile and bilateral relationship indicators.
🌊
Regional Spillover
Identify which countries are most exposed to instability contagion from a given conflict zone.

Intelligence that moves
at the speed of events.

Explore the live NERAI Intelligence Hub — real data, real forecasts, and real-time analysis for a world that does not wait.

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